April 2026: ‘Q1 Sea Cliff - Lake Street Corridor Insider
Good morning.
The city real estate market continues to exceed logic or rationale in terms of the sale price numbers for move-in ready single family homes. The market is moving so fast it’s come to the point where appraisers are looking to the prior couple days or week for comps, not a month. Looking back two or three months for relevant data is not comparing apples to apples anymore. In fact, the need for appraisals (on financed deals) is truly in question. You never see competitive offers come in with an appraisal contingency on a financed deal. The lenders are just checking “the box” on the compliance checklist because, either they won’t own these super jumbo loans for long, or they are collateralized with considerable pledged assets from the borrower.
Speaking of home financing (or lack thereof), in the past couple of months cash deals represented 32% of all residential purchases in San Francisco. I do not have any data on the number of financed purchases that had zero financing contingency, but I will say offers on competitive properties that have a financing or appraisal contingency generally fall to the bottom of the pile in terms of desirability. When the market moves this quickly, leaving the “deal” up to an appraiser or lender (that is not in tune with market velocity) is a risk most sellers do not want to take.
To put the nature of buyer competitiveness and the single family market in the City into perspective:
75% of listings sold over asking price
The average overbid was 21%
The districts with the most overbids are District 2 (greater Sunset / Parkside), District 5 (Cole Valley/Haight through to Noe Valley) and District 7 (Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina).
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On to our corner of the City.
Looking at St Anne’s at 300 Lake Street, it appears the deal to sell the site fell through. The reason for the split? In short, the City’s new “Family Zoning” requires more density than (a) the developer wants and (b) the required density does not make any financial sense for the developer. After the developer entered into contract, they spent nine months working on their vision for the six acre site, which was to build a mix of about 100 upscale single-family homes, townhouses and condos with a large open lawn & garden space; ideal for the neighborhood and offering a high-end “enclave” feel. But, when the Board of Supervisors approved the new Family Zoning Plan in January, the site density increased to 50 units per acre. The new density (~300 units) is not cost effective for the developer and a bad fit for the immediate neighborhood. What is next? The developer will continue to work with the seller and the Planning Department to find a suitable resolution, until they can’t. Meanwhile, St. Anne’s is available for $58 million if you are interested. If you are thinking “why not just build condo’s or apartments and maximize the density and the 85 foot height limit?”, you can’t since the site is not next to a transit hub. A 300-unit project would likely require at least one parking space per rental unit and where are you going to put all that parking? Underground? That simply does not pencil out for any developer.
Over on the corner of Geary and 18th Avenue, new building permits have been filed for the Alexandria Theater and are now under review by the City’s planning department (preliminary permits were filed last October). The 81-foot-tall structure is expected to yield approximately 76,500 square feet for housing, 3,200 square feet of retail space and 10,500 square feet of amenities. The unit mix includes 14x 1BR, 51x 2BR, and 18x 3BR. Ten units will restricted as affordable. Parking will be included for 94 bicycles.
Not quite our corner of the city but just east of Arguello, after ten years of planning, construction will start later this year at 3333 California Street (the former 10-acre UCSF campus). The first phase of construction — the “Presidio Highlands” will have 152 new units across three buildings. It will also include new retail along California Street and a new public open space. The master plan (which includes the old hospital site at 3700 California Street) calls for 744 housing units, a 175-spot childcare facility, about 40,000 square feet of retail and restaurant space and five acres of open space. The local developer (The Prado Group) worked with the board of supervisors’ budget committee in January to approve two infrastructure financing districts that will allow developers to use future growth in property taxes to pay for upfront costs like utilities, roads, parks and affordable housing.
The market in Sea Cliff and the Lake Street Corridor was as hot as any other premium neighborhood except we have lower inventory numbers. In Sea Cliff, the number of available properties was low as expected (three). But, two of the three properties received multiple offers and sold for high numbers (the other traded off market). Kudos to the sellers, although the sales prices were very impressive, I thought two of the homes were quite average. They were lacking in character and quality (I heard several other agents make the same comments). Also, there was a home on 28th Avenue that sold last week (Q2) that was nice, but the buyer ended up paying Sea Cliff Avenue money. This is just another indication of the insatiable appetite on the buyer side of the market for move-in ready homes.
In the Lake Street Corridor there were five sales and although the per foot numbers are lagging (due to two very large homes), the pricing was impressive as two sales were north of $6.5M. As the Corridor market continues to lack available inventory, we are now experiencing the uber-rare eight figure asking price (in the area). Next quarter, I will have an eight figure sale to report as well as homes listed in the $5M range that are selling for multiple millions over asking.
The numbers for the quarter.
Looking at the top sales of the quarter, the word is that the buyer of the home on 28th Avenue was the only buyer with an offer with a “six” in front of it. Well, he got what he wanted and I hope they plan on staying a long time.
If you have friends or colleagues in the market for Sea Cliff, I have a single family coming this quarter. It is a 5BR/3BA Tudor revival home architected by Edward Grosvenor Bolles. This home has only seen two owners since it was constructed in 1915, has great curb appeal and a flat yard accessed from a deck off the kitchen.
That is it for now. If you would like to chat about a possible sale or simply have me in for a look to give you a valuation, reach out.
Call or email, anytime.