March 2026: San Francisco Real Estate Insider
Good morning.
As we close out the first week of March, the market constant from the previous months are still present, more highly motivated buyers than sellers. The result is a sellers’ market. As we get closer to the spring market, based on historical cycles, the expectation is that inventory levels will magically jump 20%. I do believe we will see a short spike in inventory but it won’t last; I see low levels continuing through the summer. What happens after Labor Day seems really far out, in terms of the market, as we now have international events that will undoubtedly affect all markets.
Looking at some data points to help paint the picture of the current market in San Francisco, the monthly median home sales price in February jumped 21% to $1,942,500. The median price is up from $1,600,000 last February.
The median price per foot for single family homes jumped to $1,135 for February. This is a sizable jump from the prior (YoY) month of February.
Keep in mind the median rolling YoY numbers ebb and flow and they demonstrate the market in “what is selling now” versus a published annual “San Francisco Annual Median Price” which is currently much lower.
One of the biggest reasons why the median sales price jumped so high is that new listings are down considerably:
But, the “sweet spot” of inventory and sales is in the $3M-$5M range; year to date sales jumped a massive 136%. Sales from $5M-$7.5M are up although few sales (three more than this time last year) and the $7.5M to $10M category realized a huge jump in sales (from 1 to 7)! This segment is where sellers are really in the driver’s seat. There are a lot of luxury buyers in the market right now and inventory is very low.
Due to the dynamics in the market, we are seeing some eye popping sales numbers. A couple examples of buyer motivation are here:
826 Diamond Street is a single family home, listed at $3,495,000. It sold for $4,650,000, a 33% premium
726 Lake Street is a condo listed at $3,695,000. It sold for $4,750,000, a 27% premium
29 Mendosa Avenue is a single family home listed at $2,395,000 and sold for $3,500,000, a 32% premium
Also, to demonstrate the demand:
659 12th Avenue. This single family home is available now and has had over 60 requests for disclosures. This will sell for over $4M.
3852 22nd Street. This home received over 80 requests for disclosures and will close with a sales price over $4M.
Although these overbids seem quite a bit irresponsible, insane or unjust on the part of the buyer, keep in mind that when the next neighbor decides to sell, these overbids will be the comps that are used to set their asking prices. So, irresponsible or not, the eventual sales price matters to the next neighborhood buyer and seller.
Looking at interest rates (with hope for the spring market) it looked like the 30 year mortgage was entering a new area of below 6%. Unfortunately, the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan rose 13 basis points to 6.12% yesterday (Monday), loosely following the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury, which climbed back above 4% following the conflict in Iran. Let’s hope this gets sorted quickly and rates start to decrease again.
That is it for now. If you are looking to get into Sea Cliff, reach out as I have some properties coming shortly. Likewise, if you have questions on the market or a property, I am available.
Call or email, anytime.