April 2026: San Francisco Real Estate Insider
Good Morning.
If it seems like San Francisco home buyers are settling into a “fatigue mode” due to the heated competition and not winning, we may be at the start of the cycle. There is a lot of chatter in the market (aka agent talk) about possible pending IPO’s from local darlings OpenAI, Anthropic and Databricks (and the impact on the local housing market). Of course, any public event would have a delay for the masses regarding liquidity entering the market, but the impact would bring more competition on the buyer side. This possibility creates a bit of a conundrum when we see other tech giants are still laying off workers. The workers in those tech companies (that would generally be trading up this year) will likely be holding on to their home for now as stability and predictability prevail. The end result will be an even more severe imbalance of supply & demand.
Looking at home financing and bringing crypto-currencies into mainstream, mortgage-finance giant Fannie Mae will soon accept crypto-backed mortgages for the first time. Better Home & Finance and Coinbase Global unveiled a new mortgage product that allows home buyers to pledge their crypto holdings when getting a Fannie-backed mortgage (instead of selling the crypto and utilizing the cash).
Speaking of home financing (or lack thereof), in the past couple of months, cash deals represented 32% of all residential purchases in San Francisco. I do not have any data on the number of financed purchases that had zero financing contingency, but I will say offers on competitive properties that have a financing or appraisal contingency generally fall to the bottom of the pile in terms of desirability. When the market moves this quickly, leaving the “deal” up to an appraiser that may miss a very recent comp or be from out of the area is a risk most sellers do not want to take.
To follow up on last month’s report on overbids: the two referenced properties that were in escrow are now closed.
- 659 12th Avenue -Sold for $4,950,000 or 65% over
- 3853 22nd Street - Sold $4,575,000 or 76% over
There is a new overbid that should help provide insight to the velocity of the market;
-241 Frederick Street; listed at $5,950,000 and sold for $8,300,000. 40% over asking! Keep in mind this is more of a Haight Street location than a Cole Valley location. Regardless of the location it was a great home.
To put the overbids and the single family market into perspective:
75% of listings sold over asking price
The average overbid was 21%
The districts with the most overbids are District 2 (greater Sunset / Parkside), District 5 (Cole Valley/Haight through to Noe Valley), & District 7 (Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina).
That is it for now. If you have questions on the market or a property, I am available.
Call or email, anytime.