January 2026: San Francisco Real Estate Insider

Good morning and Happy New Year.

As we enter the second week of January I feel very optimistic about the next twelve months. Politically, we seem to be heading on the right path in terms of quality of life issues and a reduction in crime.  From a local economic perspective, while AI has been carrying the city, many of the city’s core business sectors (finance, tech, bio/life-science, creative/media, hospitality, etc.) are not yet in full “hire mode” but should hopefully show signs of resurgence this year. Keep in mind; while the majority of California experienced declines in value in 2025, San Francisco realized a 12.6% increase (from 2024).

As we put a wrap on the 2025 market data, I have some data points of interest as expectations are set for buying & selling in 2026.  The two following charts put a median value (aka, price of entry) in a specific San Francisco neighborhood.

If a condo is in your plans for 2026, below is a chart with median values by neighborhood.

Looking at neighborhoods with the most sales, D2 (Sunset / Parkside) ran away with the inventory. Keep in mind it’s also quite large geographically.

Where are the luxury sales? Obviously these primarily occur on the north side of town, but neighborhoods south of the Panhandle and Noe Valley are trending upwards in terms of luxury values.  In the first half of the year, I expect to see a continuation of Q4 in terms of more buyers than sellers in this category.  Who knows when the AI money will dry up.

Looking outside of San Francisco?  the following chart demonstrates Bay Area county-wide median sales prices for two different home sizes. It’s a good primer for what you’ll pay for four-bedroom or five-bedroom homes.

That is it for now. Have a great weekend. If you are thinking of a move, let’s put a plan in place to make the most of your asset. Likewise, if you have friends or colleagues looking to get into the market, feel free to pass my name along. 

Call or email, anytime.