May 2025: San Francisco Real Estate Insider
What is happening in the San Francisco market you ask? I’d say, it’s "choppy," "uncertain," "hesitant," "unpredictable," and very property specific right now.
Some listings are selling quickly with multiple offers well over asking price, but other, sometimes similar listings (that would typically be expected to sell quickly), linger on the market. More transactions are falling out of escrow due to stock market swings or fear, but some big sales are still occurring. Some buyers and sellers (in all price points) are spooked by recent political/economic events, deciding to stay on the sidelines until there is more clarity regarding what the future holds. This has (and will) create those “opportunities” for many buyers. As we have a full one third of the year behind us, I am cautiously optimistic moving forward.
Looking at some numbers for the greater Bay Area, preliminary estimates of $5M+ luxury home market remains quite dynamic, up about 24% from April 2024 and hitting its highest monthly total since May 2022 (one of the peaks of the pandemic boom). The AI boom continues to boost the sales of luxury home markets in Santa Clara and southern San Mateo Counties.
Of the $5M+ sales reported so far in April:
39% were in Santa Clara County
30% in San Mateo County
14% in Marin
13% in San Francisco
4% in Contra Costa
So far, 16 sales of $10 million+ have been reported for April 2025, up from 12 in March 2025.This includes a $32M sale in Atherton, a $25M sale in Portola Valley, a $24M sale in San Francisco and an $18M sale in Lafayette. The wealthiest of buyers are often staying in the game despite the political/economic chaos, but note that many April sales went into contract before the early-April tariff/stock market shock. These numbers and percentages may change as additional sales for April get reported to MLS in the next 7 to 10 days. And some luxury home sales are not reported to MLS.
As referenced earlier, the equities market has always heavily influenced the real estate market in the core Bay Area. We’ve all taken a hit: hopefully the bottom is behind us.
In the Bay Area, active listings hit the 2nd highest monthly count in over five years. On current trends, May 2025 will surpass the previous five year high. These numbers will not include any brokerage exclusive listings not posted to MLS.
By county, the year-over-year increase in the number of active listings in April 2025 ranged from under 10% in San Francisco (by far the smallest increase), to over 50% in Santa Clara County, and over 100% in south Alameda County. For the greater Bay Area, the total increase was approximately 48%.
That is it for now. Have a great weekend. If you are thinking of a move, let’s put a plan in place to make the most of your asset. Likewise, if you have friends or colleagues looking to get into the market, feel free to pass my name along.
Call or email, anytime.