July 2026: San Francisco Real Estate Insider
Good Morning.
The luxury segment continues to be the story of the current market. Although the category is defined as $5M+, that doesn't necessarily equate to luxury in every neighborhood today. It should definitely be adjusted to $7M+. Regardless, the year-over-year numbers continue to impress. From January 1 through June 30 on the north side of the city, sales increased 96% year over year. In 2026, there were 96 sales, compared to 49 during the same period last year.
Looking specifically at the $10M+ market, inventory continues to fall short of buyer demand. Breaking down these sales by price point, off-market opportunities are even more common, as sellers can be quite discerning about who has access to the home while keeping privacy top of mind.
Further diving into this category, the price-per-square-foot figures — considered impossible less than a decade ago—are astounding. Especially when you consider some of the off-market sales that averaged more than $4,000 per square foot.
The takeaway is simple: if you have a north side view home that's updated and move-in ready, there are likely several buyers who want it—today.
Looking beyond the luxury segment, single family home prices climbed over 21% year over year to reach a median of $2,125,000. Condos are keeping up, surging 18% to a $1,400,000 median.
The biggest hurdle for the overall market (as referenced in the luxury market) is the lack of available homes. Single-family homes for sale are down 36% compared to last spring. Less than 200 houses are currently sitting on the market. Buyers are acting with full commitment because choices are incredibly limited. Houses are moving in an average of 12 days and condos are selling in 14 days.
I don’t usually deep-dive into local politics unless there is a direct impact to real estate values, demand or restrictive housing policies that drive the cost of ownership upward. I followed the mayor's proposed budget as it moved to the Board of Supervisors during the last week of June. The budget for fiscal year 2026-2027 was approved; a whopping $16.9B! What stood out this year was that the budget was approved in just a few hours—something I haven't seen in more than twenty budget cycles. Every year, the Board literally has a twelve hour session in which supervisors yell, scream, threaten and sulk until the final budget is hammered out. These sessions are always extremely intense as supervisors are supposed to advocate for their constituents – and yes, their political funders. My (shocking) takeaway is our local elected leaders are so desensitized to the massive amount of tax dollars each resident pays to live and work in San Francisco.
San Francisco has the most government employees per 1,000 residents among U.S. counties with at least 500,000 residents. The standout finding is that San Francisco has the highest ratio among large U.S. city/counties included in the comparison, with about 24 municipal/county employees per 1,000 residents—roughly:
21% more than New York City
44% more than Philadelphia
63% more than Los Angeles County
More than double the ratio of Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, San Diego and Miami.
It seems there is no economic circumstance in which the city will not grow the workforce. Some residents may feel they receive good value from City Hall; others may not. I’ll leave it at that.
If you're wondering what today's market means for your home, I'd be happy to provide a current market valuation. Having accurate information is the best way to determine whether it's the right time to stay put or make a move.
Call or email anytime.