July 2026: The ‘Q2 Sea Cliff - Lake Street Corridor Insider

Good morning.

Now that the Fourth of July holiday is behind us, we'd normally expect inventory and buyer activity to slow. Normally, late June and July mark the beginning of the summer slowdown. This year, it hasn't happened. The luxury market is so extraordinarily competitive that most buyers in this segment will likely stay within a short flight back to San Francisco if they leave town.

The luxury segment continues to define today's market. The capital driving this segment is increasingly coming from AI founders, early employees, and the broader AI ecosystem. What surprises me most isn't the record pricing—it's the extraordinary depth of qualified buyers pursuing a very limited number of homes. Although the luxury category is traditionally defined as $5M and above, that benchmark no longer fits many San Francisco neighborhoods. Based on today's market, I'd place the entry point closer to $7M. The first-half numbers reinforce that shift: north-side sales rose 96% year over year, from 49 sales in the first half of 2025, to 96 during the same period in 2026.

Looking specifically at the $10M+ market, inventory continues to fall short of buyer demand. Breaking down these sales by price point, off-market opportunities are even more common, as sellers can be quite discerning about who has access to the home while keeping privacy top of mind.

Looking deeper into this segment, the price-per-square-foot figures — considered impossible less than a decade ago — are astounding. Especially when you consider some of the off-market sales averaged more than $4,000 per square foot. Also note 740 El Camino Del Mar is listed as a data point; but it’s not sold (yet). More on that next quarter.

The takeaway is simple: if you have a north side view home that's updated and move-in ready, there are several buyers who want it — today.

Looking beyond the luxury segment, single family home prices climbed over 21% year over year to reach a median of $2,125,000. Condos are keeping up, surging 18% to a $1,400,000 median. The biggest hurdle facing the overall market is simply a lack of available homes. Single-family homes for sale are down 36% compared to last spring. Less than 200 houses are currently sitting on the market. Buyers are acting with full commitment because choices are incredibly limited. Houses are moving in an average of 12 days and condos are selling in 14 days.

On to our corner of the City.

Remember the plans for 170 & 178 Sea Cliff Avenue? Back in 2023 I reported on approved plans to demolish 178 Sea Cliff and new permits to build a new 8,000 square foot home had been approved and issued. Now, 170 Sea Cliff has approved permits to demolish the existing home and construct a new three-story residence with an ADU over a basement level. I have not seen anyone working at the site but the owner did get the plans approved…which is not easy.

Over on the southwest corner of California Street & 22nd Avenue (across from Angelina’s), Bi-Rite Market announced the opening of a new location. Work on the rebuild has started and their stores have always been great for high quality pre-made foods (i.e. heading home late and I need a “grab-and-go” dinner for the family). Try the sumac-roasted chicken du monde when they open for business.

The local real estate market in the northwest corner of the city has been nothing short of super active. The story this quarter has been the Lake Street Corridor. Six sales above $5M, two above $10M, and one non-view home closed north of $13M. Why all of the sellers all the sudden? I think several factors converged this quarter: owners of larger homes deciding it was time to downsize, the sub-3% mortgage lock-in effect beginning to ease, and an unusually high number of trust sales (six in Sea Cliff and three in the Corridor). Simply put, more owners than expected have taken the opportunity to capitalize on the current wave of cash in the market. As an example, I had a great property on Clay Street in Pacific Heights for sale. The home was a little ‘aged’ but it checked most of the boxes. I set an offer date and of the six offers received, all but one was a cash offer.  

Single family homes are in such demand that vacant duplexes are now being valued much like traditional single-family homes. Case in point is 38-40 7th Avenue. It was a bit “tired” but delivered vacant and it sold for $5.55M / $1,388 per square foot!

On to the numbers for the quarter.

The top sales of the quarter:

Both sales were pretty astounding. The home on coveted Sea View Terrace was lacking in curb appeal but it has tremendous views. It came with plans for an expansion, which took some time to mature as some adjacent neighbors were not pleased with the sellers original concept.

On 5th Avenue, this was a re-build of an existing home and it was very nice. Scale and flow were the sensations when I viewed it. On the heels of 5th Avenue was 2206 Lake Street on the south side of West Clay Park. This view home sold for $11M. It was a grand home; but it needed some work. Sure, you could move in tomorrow but if you spend $11M on it you were updating several aspects of it.

Heading into fall, I expect premium inventory to remain limited. Buyers will continue to wait for opportunities in Sea Cliff and the Lake Street Corridor, and I suspect many transactions will happen quietly before they ever reach the public market.

If you're a fan of Tudor architecture, I have an exceptional example available this month in Sea Cliff. Five bedrooms, three baths across three levels of living space, with outstanding curb appeal. Stop by and say hello, or reach out if you'd like additional details.

If you're wondering what today's market means for your home, I'd be happy to provide a current market valuation. Having accurate information is the best way to determine whether it's the right time to stay put or make a move.

Call or email anytime.

About the Author

Scott Whelan provides sales and advisory services with a focus on Sea Cliff and the Lake Street Corridor. His work centers on unique marketing strategies for different properties, pricing, positioning and identifying off-market opportunities.

For detailed comps, off-market opportunities, or a property-specific analysis, contact Scott Whelan directly.