October 2026: San Francisco Real Estate Insider

By Scott Whelan

Good morning.

As we roll into the final quarter of the year, the market in San Francisco continues to astound even the most seasoned professionals.

As I noted earlier this year, when I compare the current market to other peak San Francisco markets over the past twenty years, the biggest difference today is the depth of the buyer pool and the age profile of those buyers.

Bay Area luxury home sales center on the Peninsula

At the top end of the market, where much of the real estate coverage is focused, we can clearly see substantial wealth creation. San Francisco is not the epicenter of these high-priced sales. Over the past two years, the center of $20M+ sales has been on the Peninsula. Hello Atherton!

Privacy in the luxury home market

Privacy has been paramount in many of these sales, as buyers are looking for anonymity.

Almost half of the $20M+ sales were in Atherton. San Francisco ranked second.

San Francisco ranks among leading billionaire cities

The recent wave of wealth creation has pushed San Francisco near the top of the global ranking by number of billionaires, behind only New York and Hong Kong, according to Altrata’s 2026 Billionaire Census.

Competition for San Francisco homes under $5M

Although the top end of the market is competitive in San Francisco and the Bay Area, the September data show that the most heated market segments are under $5M. See the segments below.

Cash buyers in the San Francisco real estate market

Looking at San Francisco transactions and financing between January 1 and September 1, cash is prevalent across price points. It may not dominate the overall market as some press coverage suggests, but it is present among buyers at many price levels.

Why I do not expect IPOs to dramatically change the market

In my daily conversations with buyers, sellers and everybody in between, I keep hearing about buyers who are trying to get ahead of pending IPOs. The assumption is that these IPOs will be successful and the market will be flooded with even more qualified buyers who can pay cash.

I am not necessarily on board with that philosophy. The companies that will eventually have an IPO have already afforded their employees several liquidity events. Many of those employees have already purchased homes, and these are the employees driving the market today.

Sure, if and when these IPOs happen, there will be more capital in the market after the lock-up periods expire. But I don’t think we will see a dramatic change in supply or demand.

Looking Ahead

As we move into the heart of the fall market, I expect inventory to improve modestly while remaining well below historical norms. Although year-over-year inventory and closed sales will likely trail last year's numbers, continued buyer demand and limited supply should keep upward pressure on home values through at least the first half of 2027.

Although transaction volume may finish below last year's levels, strong competition, limited inventory, and continued demand suggest home values should remain well supported through the first half of 2027.

Call or email anytime.