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San Francisco Housing Bubble: No

Based on ‘expert’ feedback at the SPUR conference this week, the ‘experts’ say no.


“Are we in a housing bubble? No,” said Tim Cornwell, a principal with The Concord Group, real estate advisors who work for developers, home builders and financial institutions. “We do have an affordability crisis, no doubt. But relative to fundamentals” San Francisco is not in a pricing bubble, he added.


The distinction between an affordability crisis and a housing bubble is important, said Cornwell and Jed Kolko, chief economist with Trulia, who also spoke at the forum.


But the city’s home prices don’t appear to be in a bubble, he said. At most, homes are about 6 percent overvalued in the city, he said, compared to the fundamentals of income, rents and supply and demand.


“Long term, that suggests we are in line for a 6 percent price correction,” Kolko said.

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