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2018 Mid Year Report: A Wild Ride for San Francisco Real Estate






Paragon Newsletter



Paragon Real Estate Group

2018 YTD: A Wild Ride
for San Francisco Real Estate

 

Mid-Year 2018 Report

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By any measure, the heat of the San Francisco market in the first half of 2018 has been among the most blistering ever. Probably only 3 or 4 other periods over the past 50 years have seen a comparable intensity of buyer demand vis a vis the supply of listing inventory available to purchase. This despite both significant increases in interest rates and changes in federal tax law severely limiting the deductibility of mortgage interest and property tax costs. As mentioned before, the market is particularly ferocious in the lower and middle-price segments of house sales.

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Annual Dollar Value Appreciation


Appreciation is typically viewed through the lens of percentage changes, but looking at the actual increase in dollars paid for a median priced home is perhaps more visceral. These two charts below measure dollar increases in annual median sales prices for houses and then condos. The last columns in each chart measure 2018 YTD median sales price increases against the 2017 median sales price. (The links illustrate the traditional percentage changes.)

 
Comparing the first half of 2018 to 2017, the median house sales price in San Francisco increased by an astounding $205,000 (per sales reported by 7/3/18). For condos, the increase was also very substantial, at about $71,000.

 

Link to PERCENTAGE rate appreciation chart: SF houses

 
Link to PERCENTAGE rate appreciation chart: SF condos

 
It is not a given that the second half of the year will see home price appreciation at similar rates: Prices could increase further, or they might plateau or even tick down instead. (As can be seen above, home prices can go down as well as up, though longer term trends have always been positive.) For the last 7 years, spring has typically been the most feverish selling season of the year and has often provided most of the appreciation occurring in the full year.


Median sales prices are often affected by other factors besides changes in fair
market value, such as changes in inventory, new home sales or luxury home sales.

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Market Dynamics Statistics
 

The decline in new listings, especially of houses, has been
a critical factor in the upward pressure on prices.

 
As houses have become the scarce resource in the SF market,
overbidding percentages have gone into the stratosphere (though
strategic underpricing has also played a role).

San Francisco Real Estate Overbidding

 
New lows in average days-on-market since the 2012 recovery began:

Listings have been snapped up faster than at any time in the past 7 years.

Market activity typically starts slowing significantly in July
before spiking up again in the short autumn selling season.

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San Francisco Luxury Home Sales
as reported to MLS


The second quarter of 2018 saw the highest quarterly number of SF homes selling for $2 million and above: When late-reported sales are entered into MLS, we expect the total to be over 320 for the 3-month period, far exceeding the previous high of 267 sales in Q2 2017. However, looking at higher-priced sales of $3m+, Q2 2018 is just a handful of transactions ahead of the Q2 2015 total of 97.

The luxury home market is even more intensely seasonal
in its dynamics than the general market.

Luxury condo sales in San Francisco hit a new high in May 2018.
(Sales reported to MLS: new project sales would increase these numbers.)

For the last few years, luxury house sales have more often peaked in October.

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Neighborhood Home Prices & Trends


Below are a few of the many new charts and tables from our updated report on neighborhood sales and values (What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco).

Home Price Tables by Bedroom Count

SF 3 bedroom condo prices

SF 2-unit building prices

Where Best to Look in Your Price Range

District Overview Appreciation Trends

Median sales price appreciation in the four biggest districts
for house sales by quantity of sales.
(Note: districts contain a multitude of neighborhoods.)

Median price appreciation for 2-bedroom condos and co-ops
in the 5 biggest condo-sales districts by number of sales.

If you would like to see home prices or appreciation trends for a city district
or neighborhood not included above, please let us know. We cover them all.

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The San Francisco Building Boom


Approximately 68,000 housing units are now in the SF new construction pipeline. Virtually all of them are apartments or condos: New house construction is minimal in the city, and has been so for over 50 years. Condos, new and resale, are now the dominant property type in market sales volume.
 

Just because a project is in the pipeline does not guarantee it will be built as planned. Plans are constantly being added, changed and abandoned. New housing construction is extremely sensitive to changes in economic conditions.

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