2018 YTD: A Wild Ride
for San Francisco Real Estate
Mid-Year 2018 Report
By any measure, the heat of the San Francisco market in the first half of 2018 has been among the most blistering ever. Probably only 3 or 4 other periods over the past 50 years have seen a comparable intensity of buyer demand vis a vis the supply of listing inventory available to purchase. This despite both significant increases in interest rates and changes in federal tax law severely limiting the deductibility of mortgage interest and property tax costs. As mentioned before, the market is particularly ferocious in the lower and middle-price segments of house sales.
Appreciation is typically viewed through the lens of percentage changes, but looking at the actual increase in dollars paid for a median priced home is perhaps more visceral. These two charts below measure dollar increases in annual median sales prices for houses and then condos. The last columns in each chart measure 2018 YTD median sales price increases against the 2017 median sales price. (The links illustrate the traditional percentage changes.)
Median sales prices are often affected by other factors besides changes in fair
The decline in new listings, especially of houses, has been
Market activity typically starts slowing significantly in July
San Francisco Luxury Home Sales
The second quarter of 2018 saw the highest quarterly number of SF homes selling for $2 million and above: When late-reported sales are entered into MLS, we expect the total to be over 320 for the 3-month period, far exceeding the previous high of 267 sales in Q2 2017. However, looking at higher-priced sales of $3m+, Q2 2018 is just a handful of transactions ahead of the Q2 2015 total of 97.
The luxury home market is even more intensely seasonal
Luxury condo sales in San Francisco hit a new high in May 2018.
For the last few years, luxury house sales have more often peaked in October.
Neighborhood Home Prices & Trends
Below are a few of the many new charts and tables from our updated report on neighborhood sales and values (What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco).
Home Price Tables by Bedroom Count
Where Best to Look in Your Price Range
District Overview Appreciation Trends
Median sales price appreciation in the four biggest districts
Median price appreciation for 2-bedroom condos and co-ops
If you would like to see home prices or appreciation trends for a city district
Approximately 68,000 housing units are now in the SF new construction pipeline. Virtually all of them are apartments or condos: New house construction is minimal in the city, and has been so for over 50 years. Condos, new and resale, are now the dominant property type in market sales volume.
Just because a project is in the pipeline does not guarantee it will be built as planned. Plans are constantly being added, changed and abandoned. New housing construction is extremely sensitive to changes in economic conditions.